New research challenges the existence of the 'Nervous Nineties' phenomenon frequently discussed by cricket commentators

With ongoing Ashes series for both men and women, the focus is on the performance of top Test cricketers. Particularly interesting to researchers, who study the psychological aspects of the game is the performance of batsmen as they approach the widely recognised "nervous nineties."

This term, popularised by commentators, refers to the notion that batsmen who have scored 90 or more runs often feel anxious about reaching (or failing to reach) a century (100 runs). Commentators, journalists, and even Wikipedia frequently depict the nervous nineties as a challenging period for batsmen. According to this narrative, anxiety during this phase results in diminished skill, slower scoring, and cautious play.

These notions may seem logical, but are they accurate?

In reality, our recent research, which was published in PLOS ONE, demonstrates that batsmen approaching 100 runs generally increase their scoring rate (more runs per ball) and are more likely to hit boundaries (fours or sixes), without being at any greater risk of getting out compared to other points between 70 and 130 runs.

100 holds significance beyond randomness

Although cricket is a team sport, achieving an individual score of 100 runs is universally recognised as a significant accomplishment in batting.

It's worth noting that scoring 99 runs is an impressive individual achievement. However, in the cricket community, there is a stark difference between 99 and 100.

The importance of reaching the 100-run milestone becomes evident when watching a batter accomplish it. There is a sense of joy and relief that fills the air, with teammates standing and applauding, and even opponents offering congratulations. Scoring a century enhances a batter's reputation, contributes to their legacy, increases their chances of being selected for the team, and ultimately improves their team's likelihood of winning.

On the other hand, falling just short of a century is a disappointing experience. Apart from the obvious frustration, being dismissed in the 90s can carry a stigma of mental weakness, particularly if it happens repeatedly, and is widely regarded as a "failure to convert."

Difficulties encountered in achieving success

Many individuals can recall a moment when they were on the verge of achieving their desired goal, only to have it slip away unexpectedly.

The human mind is prone to imperfections in controlling thoughts, often leading to unhelpful contemplation at inconvenient moments, such as worrying about failure when success is within reach.

One common cause of performance anxiety is the potential gain or loss of reputation.

Athletes, in particular, face additional challenges in executing precise actions due to performance anxiety. In general, it is believed that an anxious mind is less efficient in perceiving relevant information in the surroundings and planning and carrying out movements.

To combat this, performers must employ coping strategies to maintain their performance. This may involve accepting negative thoughts or directing their focus solely on a specific target, like the cricket ball.

According to the concept of the "nervous nineties" in mythology, these strategies could include adopting more cautious behavior in an attempt to avoid getting out.

What does the data indicate?

In our recent study, we analysed extensive data encompassing every delivery bowled in 712 Test matches played by both men and women from 2004 to 2022, which amounted to over 1.4 million deliveries.

Our findings diverge significantly from the commonly held belief of the "nervous nineties" in cricket. We discovered that batsmen in their 90s generally scored at a faster rate without increasing their likelihood of being dismissed.

Notably, the acceleration in scoring, indicated by a progressive rise in the average runs per ball and the probability of hitting a boundary, was particularly pronounced throughout the 90s compared to the 70s, 80s, and immediately after reaching a century.

This year's Ashes series provided some notable examples that support our findings. For instance, when Usman Khawaja reached his century in the first men's Ashes Test of 2023, it was achieved with a boundary.

Similarly, in the women's Test match, Ellyse Perry was caught out on 99 runs while attempting an aggressive shot aimed at reaching the boundary. This contradicts the notion of cautious play often associated with the "nervous nineties" phenomenon. In fact, Perry's forceful batting aligns precisely with the style of play our analysis predicts for those approaching a century.

Furthermore, throughout the 90s, we estimated the probability of a batsman getting dismissed at any given score to be around 1.3%, which is similar to the figures observed during the 70s, 80s, and just after reaching 100.

Coping with nervousness

We have developed multiple explanations for the high level of batting performance observed in the 1990s.

One possibility is that batsmen adopt an aggressive or urgent approach, such as running faster between the wickets, to alleviate their nervous discomfort.

The bowling team may also play a role in this phenomenon. When batters approach the milestone of scoring 100 runs, bowling sides often try to limit their scoring by positioning fielders closer to the pitch. This strategy aims to create pressure and provoke a mistake.

Interestingly, having a tightly packed field around the batsman might provide a quicker route to reaching a century. This is because the boundary is left unprotected from any shot that passes through or over the infield. While historical cricket data cannot reveal a batter's emotional state, it is believed that many players experience nervousness when transitioning from 90 to 100 runs. However, there is no evidence to suggest that the commonly known "nervous nineties" leads to widespread poor performance or timid play.

International cricketers generally appear to effectively manage any nerves they may have and take advantage of the situation. This serves as a notable example of how elite athletes cope with pressure in career-defining moments.