At the 2024 T20 World Cup next month, not even the most glass-half-full South African fan will be expecting the Proteas to go all the way. This pessimism stems from South Africa's past performances at ICC events, where a normally formidable cricketing nation has consistently buckled under the pressure of knockout cricket.
Trying to get over the past
This inexplicable phenomenon was on display just seven months ago in the 2023 World Cup semi-final against Australia.
Despite beating the Aussies by 134 runs in the pool stage of the competition, the Proteas wilted in the semi-final. Although the South Africans managed to chase down 212 all out from 24-4 in the 12th over, it was in vain as the Aussies won by three wickets.
Once again, a golden opportunity was squandered as a superior South African side were beaten by a nation they shouldn't have lost to. Once again it was an age-old story for the South Africans, who have added to their World Cup knockout scar tissue since their return in 1992.
With just weeks to go before their next attempt to win an ICC event, head coach Rob Walter gave a thoughtful response when asked about his team selection for the tournament.
Talent, not form, is what you pick
The reality is that Walter's squad is one that would have been the cause of more than a few eyebrows in the Rainbow nation. The main reason for this is that the 48-year-old's selection could be seen as relying on players with whom he had a close relationship during his previous stint as Titans coach, rather than picking individuals who are in form.
Indeed, sticking with the out-of-form trio of Quinton de Kock, Anrich Nortje and Marco Jansen is seen as a considerable risk in a format where one player can cost a team a game.
Similarly, not picking Rassie van der Dussen, one of the most prolific performers in South Africa's recent domestic T20 competition, is seen as a gamble.
So much so, in fact, that Walter was asked in his first press conference after announcing the squad if his selection was akin to playing roulette with the country's chances of winning their first World Cup.
Risk calculation
Walter was quick to say that he wasn't normally a betting man, but he was willing to take a risk to pick the most talented players in the country. That may be at odds with their current form, but Walter is right; this is the best South Africa has to offer in terms of natural talent.
Of course, the analogy of spinning the roulette wheel used in the press room is an apt one, as the truth is that gambling on a desired outcome does involve a degree of risk. However, taking calculated risks shouldn't always be associated with recklessness - that's the key difference in what Walter is trying to convey.
At the very least, if platers delve a little deeper into the imagery Walter is using, perhaps then the concept of rolling the dice while still being in control could be better understood.
Indeed, consider the scenario of playing in a real casino; if the player has taken measures to ensure that he is playing safely during the time, then he's ultimately thinking ahead while hoping to win.
While this may sound counter-intuitive, the truth is that there are ways to do both, which is enlightening.
The overall takeaway is that there are instances in life where risk can go hand in hand with sensitivity, as long as you approach each situation with your eyes open and with the expectation that you might lose.
Walter has been playing cricket long enough to know that defeat is a possibility and that if his dice roll backfires, he will live and die by the out-of-form players he took to the Caribbean.
But with every risk comes a chance to win, and if Walter somehow manages to steer a team that most fans have serious reservations about to glory at the World Cup, it won't matter because his name will be etched into the Rainbow Nation folklore.
There must be a way
Understandably, no one in South Africa is holding their breath - they've been burned in the past when they've trusted teams in hot form, and putting their faith in a group of players in a rut now seems like asking for trouble. It's up to the cricket gods to see if they will finally smile on the Proteas.