Afghanistan have defied expectations to reach their first-ever semifinal in an ICC event, where they will face unbeaten South Africa, eager to overturn their winless history in the World Cup semifinals. Here's a detailed analysis of the key tactics and matchups that could shape the course of this crucial encounter in Tarouba.
Selection Strategies
South Africa has maintained consistency with their squad, using only 12 players throughout the tournament. They have adjusted between Tabraiz Shamsi and Ottneil Baartman based on conditions and opponents. Shamsi, despite featuring sparingly, was pivotal in two matches where he was named Player of the Match. However, Baartman's additional pace could pose challenges to Afghanistan's predominantly right-handed batting lineup. An unconventional move might see left-arm orthodox spinner Bjorn Fortuin being considered. Afghanistan may contemplate bolstering their middle order by including left-hander Hazratullah Zazai or Najibullah Zadran in place of Karim Janat.
Pitch and Conditions at Tarouba
The Brian Lara Cricket Academy in Tarouba has been conducive to bowlers during Group C games. While bowlers dominated, it's worth noting that weaker batting sides like Uganda and PNG were involved in three of those matches. In the solitary game between West Indies and New Zealand, the hosts defended 149 successfully despite dew. Fast bowlers have thrived here with 38 wickets at an average of 12.16, particularly excelling in the Powerplay where they average 9.61 with a strike rate of 14.1 balls per wicket (ER 4.09). The semifinal is set to be played on a fresh pitch.
Afghanistan's Strategy
Afghanistan has preferred setting targets, winning all four matches where they batted first, while both their losses came chasing. The match will be played under lights, a scenario familiar to Afghanistan, having played nine of their last ten T20Is in the Caribbean at night. In contrast, South Africa has played only two-night games out of their last 15 in this region. Afghanistan already has experience at Tarouba, having defeated PNG here in the group stage. Several Afghan players have also featured in CPL games at this venue, whereas it will be South Africa's first appearance here in any format. Afghanistan boasts an impeccable 5-0 record on the three most bowling-friendly pitches in the West Indies this tournament: Providence, Arnos Vale, and Tarouba.
Can Nortje Exploit Afghanistan's Vulnerabilities?
While Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran lead Afghanistan's batting charts, the rest of their lineup has struggled to match their contributions. Azmatullah Omarzai's 101 runs are the next highest total, with the middle order (positions 3 to 7) averaging a meagre 13.24—an issue highlighted by their dependency on the openers. If Gurbaz and Zadran fail early, Afghanistan's middle order could face a stern test against South Africa's formidable bowling attack, particularly effective during the middle overs.
South Africa's spin trio—Shamsi, Maharaj, and Markram—have been instrumental, claiming 13 wickets between overs seven and 15 at a rate of 14.8 balls per dismissal. Meanwhile, their pacers, led by Anrich Nortje, have taken ten wickets at an average of 18.90, with Nortje alone accounting for eight. Known for his pace and ability to extract bounce, Nortje's aggressive bowling style could trouble Afghanistan's middle order, historically vulnerable against high pace and bounce.
In summary, as South Africa and Afghanistan prepare for their semifinal clash, both teams will rely on strategic adjustments and key performances to seize the opportunity for a historic victory in Tarouba.