India is currently leading the standings with 4 points from 2 matches and an impressive Net Run Rate (NRR) of +2.4. Afghanistan's recent triumph over Australia has complicated the standings, leaving all four teams with a chance to qualify heading into the final round of matches.
For India, the equation is simple: they need to defeat Australia in their upcoming match to secure a direct spot in the semi-finals. In this scenario, the result of the Afghanistan vs. Bangladesh match will not affect India's qualification.
Australia currently holds 2 points from 2 matches with an NRR of +0.22. Their path to the semi-finals requires a victory against India. Even a narrow loss could keep them in contention, depending on other match outcomes. If Australia loses narrowly to India, they would need Bangladesh to defeat Afghanistan and hope for favourable NRR calculations to surpass Afghanistan and potentially Bangladesh.
Afghanistan also has 2 points from 2 matches but a negative NRR (-0.65). If India defeats Australia and Bangladesh defeats Afghanistan, all three teams (India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh) would be tied on 2 points each. In this case, NRR would become crucial. Afghanistan would need a significant win over Bangladesh to improve their NRR and potentially surpass Australia's NRR if Australia loses to India.
Bangladesh is yet to secure a point from 2 matches with a poor NRR of -2.48. To qualify, Bangladesh would need to defeat Afghanistan by a substantial margin to improve their NRR significantly. They would also need Australia to lose to India and hope that the resultant NRRs favour them over both Afghanistan and possibly Australia.
Despite being undefeated, India could be eliminated if they lose to Australia and if Bangladesh defeats Afghanistan by a significant margin. If India loses to Australia and Bangladesh wins by enough to improve their NRR significantly, it could lead to a situation where India's NRR drops below that of both Afghanistan and possibly Bangladesh, depending on other results.
India's qualification is mostly secure if they win against Australia.
However, any loss to Australia combined with a favourable outcome for Bangladesh against Afghanistan could see India eliminated based on NRR calculations. The scenario hinges on the results of the India vs. Australia and Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan matches, with NRR likely playing a critical role in determining the semi-finalists from Group 1.
Thus, while India is in a strong position, their fate in the T20 World Cup 2024 hinges on their performance against Australia and the outcomes of other crucial matches in their group.