As the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle approaches its conclusion, the race for a place in the top two remains fiercely contested. With eight matches left, four teams are still vying for a spot, while one team clings to a slim mathematical chance. Here’s a breakdown of each team’s path to the final.
South Africa
Current PCT: 63.33
Matches Left: 2 vs Pakistan (home)
South Africa’s simplest route is winning at least one Test against Pakistan, securing their position. A series loss (0-2) would drop them to 52.78%, potentially leaving the door open for India or Sri Lanka to overtake them.
India
Current PCT: 55.89
Matches Left: 2 vs Australia (away)
India must win both remaining Tests in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy to ensure qualification, reaching 60.53%. If they win just one and draw the other, their fate depends on Australia’s results in Sri Lanka. A series loss (1-2) would eliminate India, while a drawn series (1-1 or 2-2) would require favourable outcomes in matches involving Australia, South Africa, or Sri Lanka.
Australia
Current PCT: 58.89
Matches Left: 2 vs India (home), 2 vs Sri Lanka (away)
Australia needs two wins and a draw to secure their spot. Winning their final two home Tests against India will guarantee qualification. However, if they falter, results in Sri Lanka will determine their fate. A 2-0 loss in Sri Lanka could allow Sri Lanka to edge past them at 53.85%.
Sri Lanka
Current PCT: 45.45
Matches Left: 2 vs Australia (home)
Sri Lanka’s hopes rest on winning their series 2-0, pushing them to 53.85%. They’ll also need Australia and South Africa to falter in their remaining matches. India must achieve no more than a draw in their final Tests for Sri Lanka to sneak into second place.
Pakistan
Current PCT: 33.33
Matches Left: 2 vs South Africa (away), 2 vs West Indies (home)
Pakistan’s chances are almost non-existent, relying on a perfect run of four wins and favourable results elsewhere. Even then, they’d only reach 52.38%, a fraction below South Africa unless over-rate penalties or surprising losses shift the standings.
As the battle intensifies, every match carries immense weight, with each team navigating a delicate balance of strategy and performance. The road to the final promises to be as thrilling as the competition itself.