Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) secured a top-two finish in Ahmedabad on Monday night, while Gujarat Titans (GT) became the third team to be eliminated from the play-off race. Here is what the other teams still in contention need to do to qualify.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Played: 13, points: 12, NRR: 0.387
Remaining match: CSK
RCB's fifth successive win - against Delhi Capitals (DC) - has lifted them to fifth on the points table, a position that looked almost impossible three weeks ago when they lost by a run to KKR, their sixth successive defeat at the time. They are now on 12 points and have a chance to reach 14 when they take on Chennai Super Kings (CSK) next Saturday. That could give them a chance of making the play-offs, but only if other results go their way, as Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) can both get to 16 and knock RCB out.
However, if other results go their way and the RCB vs. CSK match is a knockout, then RCB will need to win by 18 runs (if they score 200) to take their net run-rate above CSK's. LSG would have played both their remaining matches by then, while SRH would still have a game in hand, meaning that both RCB and CSK would have a reasonable amount of clarity about where they stand.
Chennai Super Kings
Played: 13, points: 14, NRR: 0.528
Remaining match: RCB
CSK's win over Rajasthan Royals (RR) moved them closer to a play-off spot, but they are far from certain of qualification. If they lose to RCB and remain on 14 points, four teams can still finish above them on points: KKR, RR, SRH, and LSG.
Given their excellent NRR, CSK will finish in the top four if they beat RCB in their last game. If they lose to RCB, they will have to hope that at least one of SRH or LSG falls below 16 points. Otherwise, as mentioned above, their margin of defeat will need to be narrow to ensure they stay above RCB on run-rate. If both SRH and LSG finish on 14 points or less, it is possible that both CSK and RCB could qualify on 14 points.
Delhi Capitals
Played: 13, points: 12, NRR: -0.482
Remaining match: LSG
DC's 47-run defeat at the hands of RCB saw their NRR drop to -0.482, well below that of CSK, SRH, and RCB. With 14 points the best they can do, it's extremely unlikely that they will finish in the top four. Their best chance is if SRH suffers heavy defeats in their last two games, CSK beats RCB and LSG wins just one game and stays below DC on run-rate. Then DC can sneak ahead of SRH on run-rate, but the margins are highly unlikely: if SRH loses their last two games by a combined 150 runs (with batting first scoring 200), then DC still needs to beat LSG by 64 runs to overtake SRH. So it's safe to say that DC's campaign in the 2024 IPL is almost over.
Rajasthan Royals
Played: 12, points: 16, NRR: 0.349
Remaining matches: PBKS, KKR
Three defeats in a row means that RR hasn't sealed their play-off spot yet. Four other teams can still get to 16 or more, but one of them is LSG, whose NRR is -0.769. They're highly unlikely to challenge RR's run rate even with two wins (and two losses for RR), but the Royals need one or two wins to seal a top-two finish.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Played: 12, points: 14, NRR: 0.406
Remaining matches: GT, PBKS
SRH's run rate of 0.406 is much better than LSG's, and a win in their two remaining games should ensure qualification. Two wins could even see them challenge for the top two. However, if they lose both games, they could be in trouble as CSK and RCB could both finish above them on NRR.
Lucknow Super Giants
Played: 12, points: 12, NRR: -0.769
Remaining matches: DC, MI
LSG need 16 points to qualify for the play-offs due to their poor net run-rate. Even then, they could fall short if CSK and SRH also finish on 16, as their NRRs are far superior. Even if the Royals lose two, it's highly unlikely that LSG can catch them on run rate.